[Newly Updated] Talking Points: Cross-Border Trade

The auto industry is one of Canada’s largest manufacturing sectors and a major driver of our economy, according to the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association. It contributes $18 billion to the country’s GDP, employs 128,000 Canadians and is responsible for a total of 550,000 direct and indirect jobs. Vehicles are the second largest Canadian export by value at $51 billion in 2023 of which 93% was exported to the US.

• In 2023, Canada, Mexico, and the US produced over 16 million cars (17% of the world’s total).
• Combined, Ontario and Michigan are responsible for approximately 22% of North America’s automotive output.
• Parts cross the border up to eight times before a car rolls off the line, underscoring how tightly our manufacturing sectors are woven.
• Automakers and suppliers are the US's largest manufacturing sector, historically responsible for 3 – 3.5 percent of the country’s GDP.
• 2023 estimates show the US's share in the total Canadian automotive import market stands at approximately 62%.

Canada’s aluminum and steel sectors are pillars of the economy, supporting over 130,000 jobs. Ontario leads in steel production, with major hubs in Hamilton and Sault Ste. Marie sending the bulk of these exports to the U.S.

• Canada’s aluminum and steel sectors support over 130,000 jobs across the country.
• Ontario is at the heart of Canada’s primary metal manufacturing, representing over half of the industry’s employment in the country.
• Ontario is a leading producer of steel in Canada, with major production facilities located in cities like Hamilton and Sault Ste. Marie.
• The US is the primary export market for Ontario’s steel and aluminum, accounting for a significant portion of Canada’s overall exports.

• In 2023, the agriculture and agri-food sector generated $150 billion, around 7 percent of Canada’s GDP. This sector employed 2.3 million people – 1 in 9 jobs in Canada.
• Ontario’s agri-food exports to the US totaled CAD 21.6 billion in 2023, making the US the largest market for Ontario’s agricultural products.
• Major exports include grain products, meat products, and processed foods.

• Ontario has approximately 130 early exploration projects targeting critical minerals and an additional 16 advanced-stage projects.
• In 2020, exploration companies spent a total of $206 million on critical minerals exploration projects in the province.
• In 2022, Ontario produced $13.5 billion in critical minerals, accounting for 22% of Canada’s total mineral production value.
• In 2022, Ontario was responsible for a third of Canada’s copper production, 45% of its nickel production, and 77% of its Platinum Group Elements (PGE) production, by value.
• Ontario is a net exporter of 9 critical minerals (Cobalt, Indium, Nickel, Niobium, PGE, Selenium,
  Tellurium, Uranium, Zinc).
• The US is dependent on foreign supply chains for many minerals and has a federal strategy
  to ensure secure and reliable supplies.

• The United States passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August 2022, which included a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean energy projects and provisions for clean hydrogen, electric vehicles (EVs), and domestic manufacturing support.
• Canada responded by introducing a range of matching investment tax credits including a 30% Clean Technology ITC.
• Trump has pledged to dismantle all unspent funds under the IRA, roll back proposed greenhouse gas emission limits that aim for about 64% of new vehicles to be electric by 2032, and impose a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico. This would negatively impact US competitiveness and benefit Canadian production.

• US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that for the full year of 2024, US crude oil production will average 13.2 million barrels of oil per day, compared to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 – a 2 million bpd increase. This represents a consistent upward trend that is expected to continue, and may accelerate under a Trump administration, given pledges made to cut energy prices in half.
• Canadian oil production is expected to total between 5.2 – 5.4 million bpd in 2024, primarily due to the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, followed by oil production growth slowing to approximately 2% in 2025, according to TD Economics.
• According to TD, the US is importing record quantities of Canadian oil, with Canada accounting for 60% of US crude imports in 2023.
• Between 2013 and 2023, crude oil imports from Canada to the US have grown an average of 4% per year. In July 2024, imports of crude oil from Canada to the US hit a record 4.3 million bpd.
• The Canadian government unveiled draft regulations that will impose a greenhouse gas cap on the oil and gas sector that limits emissions to 35 per cent below 2019 levels.